Today’s session is expected to be relatively quiet in terms of major macroeconomic releases, with investors’ attention focused on the U.S. House of Representatives vote on the federal spending bill passed by the Senate, which could end the more than 40-day government shutdown. Many Democrats have already pledged to block the bill, considering the promise to “revisit” healthcare reform in December insufficient. The first vote should begin around 9 PM BST.
From a macro perspective, the most important events will be speeches by Fed and ECB members, particularly relevant for EUR/USD volatility. Expectations for a December rate cut in the U.S. are slowly reviving, as recent ADP data showed an average weekly job decline of about 11,000 over the past four weeks. For the oil market, key events will be the release of the OPEC report and the API data on U.S. crude inventories.
On Wall Street, financial results will be released by Cisco Systems, Tencent Music Entertainment, and Circle Internet, while in Europe, reports from Bayer and Infineon have already appeared.
Economic calendar for today:
07:00 BST – Germany: October inflation data:
- HICP y/y: actual 2.3%; forecast 2.3%; previous 2.4%
- HICP m/m: actual 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.2%
- CPI y/y: actual 2.3%; forecast 2.3%; previous 2.4%
- CPI m/m: actual 0.3%; forecast 0.3%; previous 0.2%
08:30 BST – China: October Total Social Financing
- forecast 1,230.0B; previous 3,530.0B
08:30 BST – China: M2 Money Supply (y/y)
- forecast 8.1%; previous 8.4%
08:30 BST – China: New Loans (October)
- forecast 460.0B; previous 1,290.0B
08:30 BST – China: Outstanding Loan Growth (y/y)
- forecast 6.6%; previous 6.6%
10:00 BST – Eurozone: Eurogroup meeting
10:00 BST – U.S.: Monthly OPEC report
10:45 BST – Eurozone: Speech by ECB’s Schnabel
11:40 BST – Eurozone: Speech by ECB’s de Guindos
12:00 BST – U.S.: Monthly OPEC report
12:00 BST – U.S.: Mortgage refinancing index (previous 1,290.8)
12:00 BST – U.S.: Mortgage market index (previous 332.3)
12:00 BST – U.S.: MBA 30-year mortgage rate (previous 6.31%)
12:05 BST – U.K.: Speech by BoE MPC member Pill
13:30 BST – Canada: September housing and construction data
- Building permits: forecast +0.8% m/m; previous –1.2% m/m
14:20 BST – U.S.: Speech by FOMC member Williams
15:20 BST – U.S.: Speech by Fed Board member Waller
21:30 BST – U.S.: EIA report
- API crude oil inventories: previous +6.500 M
21:45 BST – New Zealand: October retail sales data
- Electronic card retail sales m/m: previous –0.5%
- Electronic card retail sales y/y: previous +1.0%
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