Aluminum futures in the UK are expected to rise sharply on Monday after two major aluminum production sites in the Middle East were hit by Iranian strikes, heightening fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Emirates Global Aluminium, the region’s top producer, reported “significant damage” at its Abu Dhabi facility, while Aluminium Bahrain said it was assessing the extent of the damage to its plant. Earlier this month, Alba had already shut down 19% of its 1.6-million-tonne-per-year capacity due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East accounts for roughly 9% of global supply, and these attacks raise the risk of a more acute supply squeeze, even if maritime traffic through the Strait eventually normalizes. Adding further uncertainty, Guinea, the world’s largest bauxite supplier, is considering the introduction of export quotas, which could tighten raw material availability for global smelters.
