MUFG’s Senior Currency Analyst Michael Wan highlights extreme volatility in Brent as prices spiked from US$90/bbl to US$120/bbl before retracing, driven by comments from President Trump that the Iran war could be ending soon. The report notes improving data on Iranian missile and drone launches but stresses uncertainty over whether this reflects strategic choice or capacity constraints.
Wild Brent swings on Iran conflict repricing
“Brent oil prices fluctuated wildly and made a huge roundtrip, rising all the way up to US$120/bbl from US$90/bbl previously, before falling back down closer to earth towards the same level it opened the week.”
“The key driver was comments by President Trump that the Iran war could be ending soon (but not this week), that the operation was ahead of schedule, and that the military objectives could be described as “pretty well complete”.”
“He also coupled these remarks with claims that the US has brought Iran’s missile capability down to 10% and that drone launches from Iran had decreased by 83%.”
“What we do know from the UAE government as well is that drone and missile projectiles detected from Iran has fallen sharply on 9 March to 15 ballistic missiles and 18 drones, from 17 missiles and 117 drones the day before, and the peak of 28 missiles and 332 drones on 1 March.”
“It is unclear whether this drop has been driven by an active choice by Iran, or by necessity due to actual supply and capability constraints from the Iran government.”
