Wheat prices got a short-lived lift this week on market chatter that China was sniffing around for U.S. wheat shipments — possibly one lot of white wheat. The rumor alone was enough to send futures higher, though analysts quickly questioned its credibility. So far, no official confirmation has surfaced, and with the USDA unable to issue “flash sales” reports during the government shutdown, the market is left in the dark. Also, we don’t have Commitment of Traders data from CFTC, due to government shutdown.
- In the broader grain complex, attention shifted to geopolitics after news broke that President Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday during the Asia trip. Traders see this as a potential turning point — perhaps even the early stage of a renewed U.S.–China trade thaw. Optimists are hoping the talks could pave the way for Chinese demand to return to U.S. soybeans, and maybe wheat down the line. Still, many remain skeptical, and Price Futures Group commented that in fact “U.S.–China tensions appear to be worsening — not improving.”
- USDA’s latest data (before the reporting halt) showed wheat export shipments of 258,543 metric tons for the week ending October 23 — down 47.6% from the prior week and 12% below last year’s level. Top destinations included South Korea (109,639 MT), Vietnam (46,079 MT), and Japan (33,899 MT). Despite this week’s dip, cumulative exports for 2025/26 total 11.46 MMT, up 19.4% year-on-year, signalling that the long-term export picture remains supportive for US wheat prices.
Analysts at BBH noted that while inflation progress has stalled, the Fed may lean more dovish by year-end, which could eventually weaken the greenback — a potentially supportive shift for dollar-denominated grains.
Global Crop Developments
- France: Wheat planting advanced to 57% complete as of October 20 — a 30-point jump in just one week (FranceAgriMer).
- Turkey: The national statistics office cut its 2025 wheat output estimate to 17.9 MMT, down 1.7 MMT from the prior forecast.
- Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange pegged the wheat harvest at 5% complete, signaling the start of what could be another weather-sensitive season in South America.
The wheat market remains caught between rumors and real fundamentals. Traders are watching three main storylines:
- Whether China’s alleged buying interest turns into real demand,
- The outcome of the Trump–Xi summit,
- Broader macro shifts in U.S. monetary policy and the dollar trend.
WHEAT (D1 interval)
Wheat jumps from multi-year lows, surpassing the EMA50 resistance zone (the orange line).
Source: xStation5
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