March ICE NY cocoa (CCH26) on Tuesday closed down -297 (-7.24%), and March ICE London cocoa #7 (CAH26) closed down -206 (-6.97%).
Cocoa prices plummeted on Tuesday, with NY cocoa posting a 2.25-year nearest-futures low. Cocoa prices have been in freefall over the past six weeks, with London cocoa sinking to a 2.5-year low on January 30, as abundant global supplies and slack demand weigh on cocoa prices. Losses in cocoa prices accelerated on Tuesday after Nigerian Dec cocoa exports were reported at 54,799 MT, up +17% y/y. Nigeria is the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer.
On January 29, StoneX forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 MT in the 2025/26 season and a 267,000 MT surplus for 2026/27. Also, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) reported on January 23 that global cocoa stocks rose 4.2% y/y to 1.1 MMT.
Abundant ICE-monitored cocoa inventories are negative for prices. ICE cocoa inventories rose to a 3.5-month high of 1,836,511 bags on Tuesday.
Demand concerns have hammered cocoa prices as consumers continue to balk at the high price of chocolate. On January 28, Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest bulk chocolate maker, reported a -22% decline in sales volume in its cocoa division for the quarter ending November 30, citing “negative market demand and a prioritization of volume toward higher-return segments within cocoa.”
Grinding reports also showed weak demand. On January 15, the European Cocoa Association reported that Q4 European cocoa grindings fell -8.3% y/y to 304,470 MT, a bigger decline than expectations of -2.9% y/y and the lowest for a Q4 in 12 years. On December 16, the Cocoa Association of Asia reported that Q4 Asian cocoa grindings fell -4.8% y/y to 197,022 MT. Also, the National Confectioners Association reported Q4 North American cocoa grindings rose only +0.3% y/y to 103,117 MT.
Slowing cocoa deliveries to ports in the Ivory Coast is a supportive factor for prices. Today’s cumulative data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.27 MMT of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year (October 1, 2025, through February 8, 2026), down -3.8% from 1.32 MMT in the same period a year ago. The Ivory Coast is the world’s largest cocoa producer.
Favorable growing conditions in West Africa are also a negative factor for cocoa prices. Tropical General Investments Group recently said that favorable growing conditions in West Africa are expected to boost the February-March cocoa harvest in the Ivory Coast and Ghana, as farmers report larger and healthier pods compared with the same period last year.
Chocolate maker Mondelez recently said that the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average and “materially higher” than last year’s crop. Harvest of the Ivory Coast’s main crop has begun, and farmers are optimistic about its quality.
On the positive side, Nigeria’s Cocoa Association projects that Nigerian cocoa production in 2025/26 will fall by -11% y/y to 305,000 MT, from a projected 344,000 MT for the 2024/25 crop year.
Cocoa prices have support on a tightening global supply outlook. On November 28, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) cut its global 2024/25 cocoa surplus estimate to 49,000 MT from a previous estimate of 142,000 MT. It also lowered its global cocoa production estimate for 2024/25 to 4.69 MMT from 4.84 MMT previously. In addition, Rabobank last Tuesday cut its 2025/26 global cocoa surplus estimate to 250,000 MT from a November forecast of 328,000 MT.
On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. ICCO said 2023/24 cocoa production fell by -12.9% y/y to 4.368 MMT. ICCO on December 19 estimated a 2024/25 global cocoa surplus of 49,000 MT, marking the first surplus in four years. ICCO also said global cocoa production in 2024/25 rose by +7.4% y/y to 4.69 MMT.
