After the warning signal from the U.S. labor market in the form of exceptionally weak ADP data, investors’ attention shifts to today’s NFP report. Market expectations are set relatively low compared to the previous month (a decline of around 50,000 new jobs is forecast), so a negative surprise may confirm concerns about the state of employment in the U.S. and further fuel hopes for a return to interest rate cuts.
In addition to macroeconomic data, today will be rich in monetary policy events, which could lead to increased volatility in the FX market. Before the NFP release, we will get the European Central Bank’s interest rate decision for the Eurozone, followed half an hour later by a press conference from ECB President Christine Lagarde. In the evening, we’ll also hear from members of the Fed, FOMC, Bank of Canada, and Bundesbank.
Economic calendar for today:
09:30 GMT, United Kingdom – May PMI report:
- Construction PMI: forecast 47.4; previous 46.6;
09:30 GMT, United Kingdom – Speech by BoE’s Breeden
12:15 GMT, Eurozone – Interest rate decision for June:
- Forecast: 2.15%; previous: 2.40%;
12:15 GMT, Eurozone – Deposit facility rate for June:
- Forecast: 2.00%; previous: 2.25%;
12:15 GMT, Eurozone – ECB marginal lending facility:
- Previous: 2.65%;
12:30 GMT, United States – NFP report:
- Change in non-farm payrolls: forecast 126K; previous 177K;
- Unit labor costs (q/q) (Q1): forecast 5.7%; previous 2.0%;
12:30 GMT, United States – Jobless claims:
- Initial claims: forecast 236K; previous 240K;
- 4-week average: previous 230.75K;
- Continuing claims: forecast 1.910M; previous 1.919M;
12:30 GMT, Canada – April trade balance:
- Trade balance: forecast -1.40B; previous -0.51B;
- Imports: previous 70.40B;
- Exports: previous 69.90B;
12:30 GMT, United States – April trade balance:
- Trade balance: forecast -67.60B; previous -140.50B;
- Exports: previous 278.50B;
- Imports: previous 419.00B;
12:30 GMT, United States – Non-farm productivity (q/q) (Q1):
- Forecast: -0.8%; previous: -1.7%;
12:45 GMT, Eurozone – ECB press conference
13:00 GMT, Poland – NBP press conference
15:00 GMT, Canada – May PMI report:
- Ivey PMI, n.s.a.: previous 52.3;
- Ivey PMI: forecast 48.3; previous 47.9;
15:15 GMT, Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Lagarde
16:00 GMT, Germany – Speech by Bundesbank’s Mauderer
17:20 GMT, Canada – Speech by BoC Deputy Governor Kozicki
18:00 GMT, United States – GDP data:
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow model (Q2): forecast 4.6%; previous 4.6%;
18:30 GMT, United States – Speech by Federal Reserve President Schmid
18:30 GMT, United States – Speech by FOMC member Harker
21:30 GMT, United States – Federal Reserve balance sheet:
- Previous: 6.673B;
21:30 GMT, United States – Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks:
- Previous: 3.294T;
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