France’s 10-year OAT yield held above 3.75%, near its highest level since June 2009, and was on track to rise by roughly 55 basis points in March. Investors grew increasingly wary of the economic consequences stemming from the Middle East conflict, which has kept oil prices elevated following Iran’s attack on a crude oil tanker off Dubai.
Adding to the uncertainty, reports indicated that US President Donald Trump was prepared to end the US military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed. The surge in oil prices pushed Europe’s inflation higher, with France’s EU-harmonized inflation rate climbing to 1.9% in March from 1.1% in February. Markets responded by abandoning earlier expectations of a 40% chance of an ECB rate cut, now pricing in at least two interest rate hikes for 2026. While French central bank chief François Villeroy de Galhau reaffirmed the ECB’s determination to tackle energy-driven inflation, but called timing discussions premature.
