The Mexican peso weakened past 17.4 per US dollar, giving back part of its strong monthly gains that drove it to mid-2024 highs as a firmer US dollar and shifting rate expectations eroded support for carry trades. The reversal was driven by a rebound in the greenback after the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair eased concerns over policy credibility and lifted US yields, increasing the opportunity cost of holding peso positions. Domestically, the pullback was reinforced by evidence that Mexico’s growth momentum remains modest despite a Q4 rebound, cementing expectations that Banco de México will maintain a cautious easing path after cutting the policy rate to 7% in December, gradually narrowing the real yield differential that had underpinned the “superpeso.” Heavy profit-taking after January’s sharp appreciation further amplified the move.
