Nickel futures climbed to around $18,900 per tonne, reaching its highest level in nineteen-months, on optimism that Indonesia will rein in runaway output. Jakarta confirmed that 2026 ore production quotas will fall about 34%, to 250–260 million wet tons from 379 million in 2025. While recoverable nickel may be lower due to ore moisture and ramping smelter demand, the announcement signals the government’s intent to curb oversupply that has weighed on prices over the past two years. The strategy balances ore supply with domestic processing capacity and encourages downstream development, including nickel pig iron and intermediate products. Authorities have also cracked down on illegal mining and enforced environmental rules, reinforcing the “disciplined supply” narrative. On the demand side, China remains a major driver, with stainless steel mills and EV battery manufacturers boosting purchases amid strong industrial and EV demand.
