Nonfarm Payrolls set to show US labor market weakened in May as tariff policy weighs
- Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 130K in May, down from the 177,000 increase recorded in April.
- The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the employment report at 12:30 GMT.
- The US employment report could influence the odds of a July Fed rate cut, rocking the US Dollar.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), one of the most high-impact economic data releases in the United States (US), is expected to show a further cooling of the jobs market. The main question surrounding the report is whether it will show that labor market conditions are healthy enough for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue to wait before cutting the policy rate.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is due to publish the NFP data for May at 12:30 GMT. The data could have a strong bearing on the US Dollar (USD) performance in the near term.
What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?
Economists expect the Nonfarm Payrolls to show a 130,000 job gain in May after the better-than-forecast 177,000 increase reported in April. The Unemployment Rate (UE) is seen unchanged at 4.2%.
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a closely watched measure of wage inflation, are expected to rise by 3.7% year-over-year (YoY) in April, following a 3.8% increase in March and April.
Previewing the April employment report, TD Securities analysts said: “Job growth should have cooled to its slowest pace in three months, with payrolls registering a below-consensus 110k gain in May.”
“We anticipate cooling in job creation for the goods and government sectors, as well as for leisure & hospitality. The Unemployment Rate is expected to stay unaltered at 4.2% for a second consecutive month, while wage growth likely picked up to 0.3% m/m,” they added.
