Global GDP growth is expected to hold at 2.9% in 2026 before rising slightly to 3.0% in 2027, driven by strong tech investment and easing tariffs, according to the latest OECD Economic Outlook. However, the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to weigh on growth and introduce uncertainty, with projections assuming a temporary energy market disruption and price relief from mid-2026. Inflation forecasts were revised upward, with G20 advanced economies facing 4.0% headline inflation in 2026, 1.2 percentage points higher than previously anticipated, before moderating to 2.7% in 2027. Core inflation is projected to decline from 2.6% to 2.3% over the same period. By region, US growth is set to slow from 2.0% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, with inflation peaking at 4.2% this year. China’s growth is expected to ease to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, while the Eurozone faces a sluggish 0.8% in 2026 before recovering to 1.2% in 2027. Japan’s growth remains modest at 0.9% for both years.
