The British pound traded near $1.32, close to its lowest level since late November, as uncertainty over the Iran conflict and surging oil prices weighed on markets. At the same time, the dollar remained supported as stronger-than-expected US jobs data last week further dampened expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts. US President Trump warned Iran of severe repercussions if it fails to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, though US intelligence suggests little chance of compliance. Meanwhile, reports indicate negotiations for a 45-day truce between the US, Iran, and regional mediators, which could help de-escalate tensions. With crude prices near multi-year highs, inflation concerns have led investors to rule out Fed rate cuts this year. In the UK, markets now expect two Bank of England rate hikes in 2026, reversing pre-war forecasts of two cuts. This shift persists despite Governor Andrew Bailey’s caution that markets may be overestimating the likelihood of tightening.
