Sugar futures in the US climbed above 14.3 cents per pound to the highest since February 9, supported by surging oil prices and forecasts of lower global supply. The ongoing Middle East crisis has pushed oil prices higher, boosting ethanol profitability and raising concerns that sugar mills, especially in top producer Brazil, may divert more cane toward ethanol production, thus curbing sugar supplies. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll on March 6 indicated sugar prices are expected to end the year about 10% above current levels, amid an anticipated shift in the global market from a surplus of 1.39 million tons in 2025/26 to a 1.5 million ton deficit in 2026/27. The expectation is that production in the key Center-South region of Brazil will reach 40.38 million tons in the cycle, a volume close to the previous season, but with a smaller proportion of sugarcane destined for sugar production.
