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The Day Ahead

  • Futures point to slightly higher opening of today’s cash session in Europe
  • Macro calendar focused on labor market
  • Bonds gain on wave of falling US 10-year yields

Futures based on the major stock indices from the Old Continent point to a slightly higher opening of today’s cash session in Europe. However, the scale of the increases for the moment seems to be small, due to the weak trading of indices in Asia and the US. Slightly better sentiment was provided today by Germany’s industrial production data, which somewhat disrupted the ongoing narrative of a global recession and showed robust manufacturing growth in the country. In the FX market, we are seeing an outflow to the Japanese yen and the US dollar. Energy commodities and cryptocurrencies are under downward pressure this morning. The bond market is doing relatively well, gaining on the wave of dynamic declines in yields.  

Investors’ attention today will focus primarily on the labor market, which, in view of the specter of a possible recession, is a kind of barometer and economic and monetary prognosticator for future FOMC decisions. Today’s macro calendar will include the Challenger Report, jobless claims and a broad report from the Canadian labor market. Investors involved in the energy market will keep a close eye on new updates to the EIA’s report on changes in natural gas inventories.

Macro calendar:

12:30 am BST – US, Challenger report for March. Previous reading: 77.77k.

01:30 pm BST – USA, Jobless Claims. Expected: 200k, Previous reading: 198k.

01:30 pm BST – Canada, Labor market report for March. 

  • Unemployment rate. Expected: 5.1%. Previously: 5.0%.
  • Employment change. Expected: 12.9k Previously: 21.8k.
  • Change in full-time employment. Previously: 31.1k.
  • Change in part-time employment. Previously: -9.3k.

03:00 pm BST – Canada, Ivey PMI Index for March. Expected: 52. Previously: 51.6.

03:30 pm BST – US, EIA gas inventory change report. Expected: -20 bn. Previously: -47 bn.

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