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The Day Ahead

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  • Easter Monday is a day off in most European countries. The US market is operating normally today
  • The market reassesses the US labor market data from Friday
  • The calendar includes a press conference by the new BoJ chief

The macro calendar is light today as most European economies have still holidays. Earlier today we got slightly better-than-expected Japanese sentiment data, but worse current account data.

Today, the market will focus on statements from the new BoJ chief Ueda, as it is expected that there may be a change or even an end of the yield curve control program. The government has not pressed the BoJ in terms of possible future changes of monetary policy but is counting on the BoJ to carry out changes very slowly. The YCC program has created large imbalances in the debt market and has led to a reduction in banks’ margins. However, Ueda indicated before the parliament in February that Japan still needs an accommodative monetary policy. On the other hand, we observe above-target inflation and strongly rising wages.

From the current week’s perspective, at least two important events await us. These will be the publication of US CPI inflation on Wednesday and later the same day the publication of the minutes from the FOMC meeting. These events should provide an answer whether the Fed hike in May is still in play.

Calendar:

11:15 BST Japan – BoJ conference

15:00 BST USA – Wholesale inventories (expectation: 0.3% m/m; previous: -0.4% m/m)

21:15 BST US – Williams from the FOMC

Closed markets:

  • AUS200, AUS200.., AUS200+, HKComp, HKComp.., HKComp+, CHNComp, CHNComp.., CHNComp+, FRA.40, FRA.40.., FRA.40+, NED25, NED25.., NED25+, ITA.40, ITA.40.., ITA.40+, DE.30, DE.30.., DE.30+, EU.50, EU.50.., EU.50+, SUI20, SUI20..,SUI20+, UK.100, UK.100.., UK.100+, W.20, W.20.., W.20+, SPA.35, SPA.35.., SPA.35+, CZKCASH, CZKCASH.., CZKCASH+, AUT20, AUT20.., AUT20+, VSTOXX
  • EMISS, EMISS.., EMISS+, BUND10Y, BUND10Y.., BUND10Y+, SCHATZ2Y, SCHATZ2Y.., SCHATZ2Y+,
  • ALUMINIUM, ALUMINIUM.., ALUMINIUM+, COPPER, COPPER.., COPPER+, NICKEL, NICKEL.., NICKEL+, ZINC, ZINC.., ZINC+
  • COCOA, COCOA.., COCOA+, COFFEE, COFFEE.., COFFEE+, SUGAR, SUGAR., SUGAR.., SUGAR+ – trading from 13:30
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