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The Day Ahead


Futures based on indexes from the Old Continent point to a slightly lower opening of today’s trading session in Europe. Investors are looking uncertainly towards the macro readings scheduled for today, which are likely to dictate how the future monetary policy of the major central banks will be created. In the FX market, sentiment is slightly better. Against the broad market, the Australian dollar is currently posting the biggest gains, while the US dollar and the Japanese yen are doing much worse. The crypto market is slowing down yesterday’s upward momentum and at the moment Bitcoin is losing the $30,000 level broken out yesterday.

The macro calendar for today’s session is filled with interesting economic readings from the US and Canada. Investors’ attention is primarily focused on the CPI inflation reading from the US and the Fed’s Minutes following the latest FOMC meeting on interest rates. Nevertheless, it will be interesting in the Canadian market, where we will learn the BoC’s decision on interest rates. Investors involved in the energy market will learn today about the report on inventories of oil and petroleum products compiled by the DOE. A number of speeches by central bankers are also scheduled for today.

01:30 pm BST – US, CPI inflation for March. 

  • CPI inflation (YoY). Forecast: 5.2% YoY. Previously: 6.0% YoY.
  • Core CPI inflation (YoY). Forecast: 5.6% YoY. Previously: 5.5% YoY.
  • CPI inflation (MoM). Forecast: 0.2% MoM. Previously: 0.4% MoM.
  • Core CPI inflation (MoM). Forecast: 0.4% MoM. Previously: 0.5% MoM.

03:00 pm BST – BoC decision on interest rates. Forecast: 4.5%. Earlier: 4.5%.

03:30 pm BST – Report after the BoC decision.

03:30 pm BST – DOE report on US oil inventories.

  • Change in oil inventories. Forecast: -1.3bbl. Previously: -3.74bbl.
  • Change in gasoline inventories. Forecast: -1.5bbl. Previously: -4.12bbl.
  • Change in distillate stocks. Forecast: -0.7bbl. Previously: -3.63bbl.

07:00 pm BST – Minutes of the latest FOMC meeting.

Speeches by central bankers

  • ECB Lagarde & Panetta 11:00 am BST
    ECB De Guindos 01:30 pm BST
    ECB De Cos 02:00 pm BST
    ECB Villeroy 07:15 pm BST
    BoE Bailey 02:00 pm BST & 08:15 pm BST
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