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The Day Ahead

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  • European indices set to open little changed
  • ADP jobs report and services ISM in the spotlight
  • Final services PMIs from Europe and the United States

European index futures trade little changed compared to yesterday’s cash closing prices. This comes after a downbeat Wall Street session yesterday and a mixed trading in Asia today. New Zealand dollar is the best performing G10 currency after RBNZ delivered a bigger-than-expected 50 basis point rate hike. Oil is trading more or less flat while cryptocurrencies gain.

Economic calendar for the day ahead looks interesting. While European morning will be dominated by final services PMI release for March, things get more interesting in the afternoon. Traders will be offered ADP jobs report for March at 1:15 pm BST – one of final hints ahead of Friday’s NFP data. Services ISM index for March will be released at 3:00 pm BST and it will also be watched closely, especially prices and employment subindices. Oil traders will focus on DOE report after API data released yesterday hinted at a massive build in oil, gasoline and distillate stockpiles.

8:15 am BST – Spain, services PMI for March. Expected: 57.2. Previous: 56.7

8:45 am BST – Italy, services PMI for March. Expected: 52.9. Previous: 51.6

8:50 am BST – France, services PMI for March (final). First release: 55.5

8:55 am BST – Germany, services PMI for March (final). First release: 53.9

9:00 am BST – Euro area, services PMI for March (final). First release: 55.6

9:30 am BST – UK, services PMI for March (final). First release: 52.8

10:00 am BST – Italy, retail sales for February. Expected: 0.5% MoM. Previous: 1.7% MoM

1:15 pm BST – US, ADP employment report for March. Expected: 205k. Previous: 242k

1:30 pm BST – US, trade balance for February. Expected: -$69.0 billion. Previous: -$68.3 billion

1:30 pm BST – Canada, trade balance for February. Expected: C$1.60 billion. Previous: C$1.92 billion

2:45 pm BST – US, services PMI for March (final). First release: 53.8

3:00 pm BST – US, ISM non-manufacturing for March. Expected: 54.5. Previous: 55.1

3:30 pm BST – DOE report on US oil inventories.

  • Oil inventories. Expected: -1.8 mb (API: -4.35 mb)
  • Gasoline inventories. Expected: -1.4 mb (API: -3.97 mb)
  • Distillate inventories. Expected: -0.1 mb (API: -3.70 mb)

Central bankers’ speeches

  • 10:15 am BST – BoE Tenreyro
  • 10:15 am BST – ECB Vujcic & Vasle
  • 3:00 pm BST – ECB Lane
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