U.S. CPI set to hold steady at 2.4% YoY in February
- The US Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 2.4% YoY in February.
- Annual core CPI inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.5%.
- EUR/USD’s near-term technical outlook points to a bearish bias despite the recent rebound.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. The report is expected to show a stabilization in inflation, still above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% target.
The monthly CPI is forecast to rise 0.3%, following the 0.2% increase recorded in January, while the annualized reading is seen holding steady at 2.4%. Core CPI figures, which exclude volatile food and energy prices, are expected to come in at 0.2% and 2.5%, on a monthly and yearly basis respectively.
Although inflation data is critical for Fed officials when deciding on the next policy step, the market reaction could remain muted due to the fact that the February CPI prints won’t reflect the impact of rising crude Oil prices on inflation. After the United States (US) and Israel launched a joint military operation against Iran on February 28, the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose sharply from about $67 to above-$110 before correcting lower.
What to expect in the next CPI data report?
CPI figures for February are unlikely to diverge significantly from market expectations. In the past six releases, monthly core CPI readings were either 0.2% or 0.3%. Similarly, CPI was up either 0.2% or 0.3% on a monthly basis in this time frame, with the exception of a 0.4% increase recorded in August, 2025.
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports painted a mixed picture in regard to input price pressures in the private sector. The Prices Paid Index component of the Manufacturing PMI survey jumped to 70.5 in February from 59 in January, while the Prices Paid Index of the Services PMI survey declined to 63 from 66.6.
Previewing the inflation data, “the February CPI report this week should begin to show a moderation in services inflation that will help build confidence for the FOMC”, said TD Securities analysts.
“Core CPI likely moderated in February to 0.23% m/m owing to a slower rise in services along with more modest tariff pass-through. We look for the headline to accelerate to 0.25% m/m as energy prices rebounded. Our forecast translates to 2.5% and 2.4% y/y for core and headline, respectively,” they explained.
