The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note held around 4.15% on Monday after rising for two straight sessions, as investors scaled back expectations for a near-term Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Several Fed officials have voiced skepticism over the need for a December cut, with some opposing it entirely. Markets are currently pricing in about a 46% chance of a 25 bps reduction next month, down sharply from roughly 88% a month ago. Investors are also looking ahead to a wave of US economic data releases delayed by the government shutdown to help guide Fed policy. The closely watched September jobs report is due Thursday, while markets await an updated schedule for other indicators. Key private reports this week include flash S&P PMIs, existing home sales, the NAHB housing index, and the weekly ADP employment figure.
