S&P 500 — US Large Cap Index
FTSE 100 — UK Blue Chips
Euro Stoxx 50 — Eurozone Leaders
DAX 40 — German Equities
CAC 40 — French Market Index
Nikkei 225 — Japan Benchmark
Hang Seng — Hong Kong Index
Shanghai Composite — China Mainland
ASX 200 — Australian Market
TSX Composite — Canada Index
Nifty 50 — India Large Cap
STI Index — Singapore Market
KOSPI — South Korea Index
Bovespa — Brazil Equities
JSE Top 40 — South Africa Index
IPC Index — Mexico Market
January WTI crude oil (CLF26) on Thursday closed up +0.21 (+0.38%), and January RBOB gasoline (RBF26) closed up +0.0070 (+0.41%).
Crude oil and gasoline prices settled higher on Thursday amid heightened geopolitical risks in Venezuela and Russia. Also, Thursday’s sharp rally in stocks boosted optimism about the economic outlook, which is supportive of energy demand. Gains in crude were limited due to a stronger dollar and a bearish global supply outlook.
Escalation of global geopolitical tensions is supportive for crude prices. President Trump late Tuesday night ordered a “total and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers” going into and leaving Venezuela. Also, the US is considering ratcheting up sanctions on Russian energy exports and targeting Russia’s shadow fleet of oil tankers and traders who facilitate its exports if President Putin rejects a proposed peace agreement with Ukraine.
On Tuesday, crude oil and gasoline prices slumped to 4.75-year nearest-futures lows amid concerns about global energy demand and expectations for a worldwide oil glut.
Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +5.1 w/w to 120.23 million bbl in the week ended December 12.
Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have targeted at least 28 Russian refineries over the past three months, exacerbating a fuel crunch in Russia, limiting Russia’s crude export capabilities, and lowering global crude supplies. Also, new US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have curbed Russian oil exports.
Crude also garnered support after OPEC+ on November 30 said it would stick to plans to pause production increases in Q1 of 2026. OPEC+ at its November 2 meeting announced that members will raise production by +137,000 bpd in December but will then pause the production hikes in Q1-2026 due to the emerging global oil surplus. The IEA in mid-October forecasted a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026. OPEC+ is trying to restore all of the 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 1.2 million bpd of production left to restore. OPEC’s November crude production fell by -10,000 bpd to 29.09 million bpd.
Last month, OPEC revised its Q3 global oil market estimates from a deficit to a surplus, as US production exceeded expectations and OPEC also ramped up crude output. OPEC said it now sees a 500,000 bpd surplus in global oil markets in Q3, versus the previous month’s estimate for a -400,000 bpd deficit. Also, the EIA raised its 2025 US crude production estimate to 13.59 million bpd from 13.53 million bpd last month.
Wednesday’s EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of December 12 were -4.0% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -0.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -5.7% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending December 12 fell -0.1% w/w to 13.843 million bpd, just below the record high of 13.862 million bpd from the week of November 7.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ending December 12 rose by +1 to 414 rigs, modestly above the 4-year low of 407 rigs reported on November 28. Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.
