Aluminum futures in the UK climbed to $3,120 per tonne, extending the rebound from a more than four-month low amid declining inventories and expectations of a shortage. Drawdowns from LME warehouses in recent weeks pushed total stocks below 300,000 tonnes for the first time since 2022, highlighting tight near-term availability. Although the resumption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz and announcements of smelter restarts in the Middle East had raised expectations of additional supply, some analysts noted that supply from the region may take longer than anticipated to reach the market. The aluminum market is also expected to see a deficit this year, with Macquarie forecasting a shortfall of around 930,000 tonnes. Prices were further supported by a softer US dollar after a weak US jobs report reduced expectations of an imminent rate hike, improving the appeal of dollar-denominated commodities.

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