Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.81%, remaining near a more than two-year high, as markets increasingly priced in a rate hike ahead of the RBA decision. Traders currently assign a 75% probability to a rate increase on February 3, with another fully priced in by August. This follows a series of strong economic data, particularly hotter-than-expected December inflation, reinforcing that policymakers remain some distance from returning inflation to the 2–3% target, alongside an unexpected drop in unemployment. Australian job ads, a forward-looking employment indicator, also rose at their fastest monthly pace since February 2022, while home-price growth accelerated in January, highlighting economic strength. Analysts say Australian 10-year yields could briefly top 5% as markets repriced rate expectations, with rising global yields and fiscal concerns adding further upward pressure.

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