The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index was flat month-over-month in May 2026 after an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in the previous month, underscoring weak momentum. Meanwhile, the six-month annualised growth rate edged to -0.17% from -0.18% in April, signalling below-trend growth likely through late 2026 into early 2027. While no sharp downturn is evident, the drag from higher rates and elevated fuel costs is expected to build gradually. At its June meeting, the Reserve Bank paused to gauge the impact of earlier hikes and the energy shock but warned inflation risks remain skewed upward, leaving scope for further tightening. Consistent with the leading Index, growth appears subdued, though inflation remains the central bank’s primary concern. Westpac expects upcoming CPI to remain uncomfortably high, raising the odds of additional hikes in the coming months.

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