Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose to 2.97%, nearing last week’s two-year peak of 2.99%, as investors ramped up expectations for ECB rate hikes ahead of today’s policy decision. Hopes for rate cuts have evaporated amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has driven energy prices sharply higher and reignited inflation concerns. A 25% spike in European gas prices, after attacks on Qatar’s LNG facilities, and Brent crude at $117/barrel have intensified inflation risks for the Eurozone, pushing markets to price in over 55 basis points of ECB tightening by year-end, equivalent to at least two quarter-point hikes. The first hike is now fully priced in by June, a stark shift from pre-war expectations of a potential rate cut.

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