The yield on Canada’s 10 year government bond hovered below 3.4%, holding below the late December peak of 3.47%, as softer domestic growth signals and a cooling labor market reinforced expectations that policy rates are near their cycle high. Recent data point to fading momentum into year end, with GDP tracking weaker in October and November and the unemployment rate rising to 6.8% in December as labor supply outpaced job creation, signaling loosening conditions. Wage growth has eased from prior highs, participation has risen, and employment gains have moderated, reducing upside risks to inflation and strengthening the case for a prolonged hold or eventual easing by the Bank of Canada. This shift has anchored the long end of the curve, with investors extending duration as the probability of additional hikes fades and term premiums compress. Global rates provided mild reinforcement after a softer US payrolls report kept Treasury yields contained.

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