China’s 10-year government bond yield fell to around 1.80% on Monday, hitting its lowest level in over a month as investors sought refuge in safer assets following failed US–Iran peace talks. The negotiations ended without a breakthrough, while President Trump announced a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, raising further fears of global energy disruptions. Amid the evolving Middle East war, Chinese assets such as bonds have merged as a relative safe haven, supported by energy resilience, policy support, and limited exposure to geopolitical tensions. Sentiment has also been reinforced by improving domestic momentum, as the country recently exited producer deflation that has persisted since September 2022. The 10-year yield has risen only by about 3 bps through Friday, compared with gains of at least 40 bps in US and European peers. Investors are now focused on a heavy week of economic data, particularly trade figures, Q1 GDP, industrial output, retail sales, and unemployment.

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