The year 2026 brings heavy turbulence to the gold market: first, massive rallies to levels above $5,500, motivated by central bank purchases, acquisition plans, and market uncertainty; followed by sharp declines related to profit-taking amid a significant increase in market risk and demand for cash. What is currently happening in the central bank purchasing market?

Central banks intended to continue purchasing gold for their reserves in 2026, diversifying away from the US dollar. The war in Iran has raised questions about whether central banks will start using gold to offset the impact of the Middle East situation on economies or currencies. Central bank actions look as follows: on one hand, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) continues a multi-month buying streak; on the other, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) is liquidating dozens of tons of bullion in a short period to defend the lira during the war in Iran. Simultaneously, forecasts from the World Gold Council (WGC) and financial institutions indicate that total official demand in 2026 will remain relatively high compared to historical averages, though it likely will not exceed the 1,000-ton level.

China: 17 months of uninterrupted gold accumulation

At the end of March 2026, China’s official gold reserves stood at 74.38 million troy ounces, up from 74.22 million ounces in February. This marks the seventeenth consecutive month of reported PBOC purchases. The value of these reserves fell in dollar terms ($342.76 billion vs. $387.59 billion) due to the sharp sell-off in gold following the outbreak of the USA–Iran conflict, but in terms of quantity, Beijing continues to systematically add metal. It is often pointed out that China unofficially buys significantly more gold than official data suggests, as part of an attempt to dethrone the dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency.

The World Gold Council has noted for years that China is one of the main drivers of structural central bank demand for gold, and independent estimates suggest that the actual level of Chinese reserves may be up to twice as high as officially reported. For the PBOC, gold serves as a diversification tool against the dollar, a hedge against financial sanctions, and a long-term stabilizer for the yuan’s credibility. However, it is worth noting that the yuan currently accounts for only 2–3% of global reserves.

Turkey: Aggressive sell-off and gold swaps to defend the lira

At the opposite end is the Central Bank of Turkey, whose gold reserves fell by over 118 tons in two weeks—from 820–830 tons to 702.5 tons. In the last week of that period alone, gold holdings decreased by 69.1 tons, marking the largest weekly drop since the bank began publishing such detailed data.

Data and estimates from local banks show that approximately 26 tons of bullion were sold directly, while about 42 tons were used in gold–lira swap transactions to increase liquidity and foreign exchange intervention capabilities. The CBRT openly communicates that under the conditions of the war in Iran, spiking energy prices, and gold’s large share in reserves (over 60%), using “gold-backed” transactions is a “natural” tool to support foreign currency liquidity. This action by the CBRT should not be seen as a benchmark for other central banks. The Turkish lira has lost nearly 15% against the US dollar over the past year, even with interest rates maintained significantly higher than in the US. In the last 5 years, the lira has lost over 80% of its value.

Central banks still intend to buy gold

Despite the Turkish sell-off, the global picture has not changed significantly. The WGC estimates that central bank purchases in 2026 will total approximately 850 tons, only slightly less than the 863 tons in 2025 and still near the record levels of recent years. This represents nearly double the annual average purchases from 2010–2021 (approx. 400–500 tons), highlighting a permanent shift in the demand regime. Furthermore, once the war in Iran concludes, the world will again worry about extreme global debt growth, including in the US, which may once again cast doubt on the stability of the dollar as the primary reserve asset.

According to the latest WGC surveys, as many as 43% of central banks plan to increase gold’s share in their reserves in 2026, and 95% expect global central bank gold holdings to continue growing over a five-year horizon. The main motives cited are: diversification from the dollar, protection against inflation and systemic risk, and growing concerns over the stability of public debt in G10 countries.

Which central banks are planning further purchases?

In WGC data and market analysis, those most frequently mentioned as active or planning further accumulation in 2026 include China, Poland, India, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Malaysia, Indonesia, as well as the Czech Republic and Serbia.

Overall, this means that even if some banks like Turkey or Russia (or, as some suggest, Qatar) temporarily move to the supply side for liquidity or sanction-related reasons, the structural number of institutions increasing their gold share is growing. There is also a chance that once the situation stabilizes, the selling banks will return to buying gold.

What does this mean for gold prices in 2026?

Since 2022, central banks have become the backbone of global gold demand. Central banks buy with a multi-year horizon, are largely indifferent to short-term price movements, and very rarely decide to sell. Other global assets, such as silver or stocks (though ETF purchasing occasionally occurs), do not have demand from official institutions. This means that gold continues to have long-term fundamentals for a continuation of its uptrend. If central bank purchases were to drop by half, only then would it pose a risk to the long-term growth fundamentals.

Gold starts this week with a slight rebound. At the moment, the key resistance zone is around $4,750–$4,800 per ounce. If crude oil were to rise into the $120–$150 per barrel range, gold could fall below $4,000 per ounce, but even then, the support zone remains the upward trend line, which should halt any larger correction at the 50.0 retracement of the last major upward wave. Source: xStation5

لا تشكل المعلومات الواردة في هذه الصفحة مشورة مالية، ولا تأخذ في الاعتبار مستوى فهمك أو أهدافك الاستثمارية أو وضعك المالي أو أي احتياجات محددة أخرى. جميع المعلومات المقدمة، بما في ذلك الآراء وأبحاث السوق والنتائج الحسابية والتحليلات الفنية المنشورة على الموقع الإلكتروني أو المرسلة إليك بوسائل أخرى، تُقدم لأغراض إعلامية فقط ولا ينبغي بأي حال من الأحوال تفسيرها على أنها عرض أو دعوة لإجراء معاملة في أي أداة مالية، كما لا ينبغي تفسير المعلومات المقدمة على أنها مشورة ذات طبيعة قانونية أو مالية تستند إليها أي قرارات استثمارية تتخذها، بل يجب أن تستند حصريًّا إلى مستوى فهمك، أو أهدافك الاستثمارية، أو وضعك المالي، أو احتياجاتك المحددة الأخرى؛ وأي قرار بالتصرف بناءً على المعلومات المنشورة على الموقع الإلكتروني أو المرسلة إليك بوسائل أخرى يكون على مسؤوليتك الخاصة تمامًا. إذا كنت في شك أو غير متأكد من فهمك لمنتج أو أداة أو خدمة أو معاملة معينة، فيجب عليك طلب المشورة المهنية أو القانونية قبل التداول. ينطوي الاستثمار في عقود الفروقات (CFDs) على مستوى عالٍ من المخاطر، حيث إنها منتجات تعتمد على الرافعة المالية، وغالبًا ما تؤدي التقلبات الطفيفة في السوق إلى تقلبات أكبر بكثير في قيمة استثمارك، وقد يعمل ذلك ضدك أو لصالحك. يرجى التأكد من فهمك الكامل للمخاطر التي ينطوي عليها ذلك، مع مراعاة أهدافك الاستثمارية ومستوى خبرتك، قبل التداول، وطلب المشورة المستقلة إذا لزم الأمر.

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