DBS Bank’s Group Research indicates that China’s GDP growth is projected to moderate to 4.3% in 1Q 2026, following a slowdown from 4.8% in 3Q 2025 to 4.5% in 4Q 2025. The report highlights that this slowdown is reflected in various economic indicators including industrial activity and retail sales. Looking ahead, the trade outlook may be impacted by ongoing trade tensions as previous front-loading activities diminish.

China’s GDP growth outlook

“As per our Nowcast model, GDP growth will moderate to 4.3% in 1Q. The slowdown is seen in industrial activity, loans, fixed asset investment, exports and retail sales.”

“Looking forward, trade outlook could be clouded by trade tension as front-loading activities fade.”

“Growth momentum is also conditional on asset market and consumption recovery.”

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