Economic Calendar: All at once! Fed rate decision and Big Tech earnings to stretch investors

Today’s trading session on the financial markets is a true “heavyweight” event. On one hand, a major macro event awaits us in the form of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in the US , followed by the press conference of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The market is currently pricing in roughly a 30% chance of a rate hike at today’s FOMC meeting and 100% for September. From a market perspective, we are close to a “coin flip” meeting, meaning the potential for a surprise and a spike in volatility (especially on EUR/USD) is immense. However, Wall Street traders’ attention will be stretched to the absolute limit, as the true test for sentiment across the tech sector and AI monetization will arrive right after the close of regular trading. That is when two giants— Meta Platforms and Microsoft —will present their Q2 financial reports.

Key Releases from the Asian Session & Morning:

• Australia: Q2 quarterly CPI inflation came in lower than expected, offering relief to the RBA. Year-over-year, the index dropped to 3.9% y/y (consensus: 4.1% y/y), while on a quarterly basis it landed at 0.6% q/q compared to the expected 0.7% q/q (both Q2 figures). In June, inflation fell to 3.8% from 4.0% in May.
• Sweden: Surprisingly strong Q2 flash GDP data. The economy expanded by an impressive 1.4% q/q (consensus: 0.7% q/q) and 2.8% y/y (vs. 1.9% y/y expected), recovering from the previous quarter’s decline.
• Norway: Solid rebound in retail sales ex-autos for June. The reading came in at 1.8% m/m, clearly making up for May’s sharp drop (-2.1% m/m).
• Germany: June import prices fell -0.7% m/m (in line with consensus). Year-over-year, they rose 6.1% y/y.

Macroeconomic Calendar (all times CET):

• 09:00 Poland – BIEC Labor Market Index (July). Previous: 76.9
• 10:30 United Kingdom – Mortgage Approvals (June). Consensus: 57k | Previous: 56.2k
• 10:30 United Kingdom – M4 Money Supply (m/m) (June). Consensus: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
• 13:00 USA – MBA Mortgage Applications Index (Weekly). Previous: 1.9%
• 16:30 USA – EIA Crude Oil Inventories Change. Consensus: -1.3 mn bbl | Previous: 2.01 mn bbl
• 16:30 USA – EIA Gasoline Inventories Change. Consensus: -0.7 mn bbl | Previous: 0.76 mn bbl
• 16:30 USA – EIA Distillate Stocks Change. Consensus: 0.1 mn bbl | Previous: 1.4 mn bbl
• 20:00 USA – FOMC Interest Rate Decision. Consensus: 3.50-3.75% | Previous: 3.50-3.75%
• 20:30 USA – Fed Press Conference (Jerome Powell) following the FOMC meeting.

Top Earnings Releases:

Wall Street:

• Microsoft (MSFT) – Priority report for the entire Big Tech sector and investors assessing the pace of AI monetization and Azure cloud revenue growth.
• Meta Platforms (META) – Test for the health of the digital advertising market and the scale of capital expenditure (Capex) on AI infrastructure.
• Lam Research Corp.
• Qualcomm
• Procter & Gamble (before market open)

Warsaw Stock Exchange (GPW):

• Grupa Kęty
• mBank

3 Markets to Watch Today:

• EUR/USD (FX) – The major currency pair will move in wait-and-see mode for most of the day (currently flat near 1.1399). However, a sharp spike in volatility is expected at 20:00 and 20:30. The FOMC decision and the tone of Kevin Warsh’s remarks will set the direct path for the US dollar in the coming weeks.
• US100 (Nasdaq 100 fut.) – The tech index remains under heavy downward pressure, driven by concerns over an AI bubble and the situation in the Middle East. The Fed’s decision and language, along with earnings from key index heavyweights (Meta and Microsoft), could serve as either a trigger for a rebound or a breakdown below key support levels.
• Crude Oil (OIL) – The commodity will receive every possible reason for volatility today. Alongside renewed escalation in the Middle East and dollar fluctuations following the Fed decision, investors await the US Department of Energy (EIA) report. The consensus expects an inventory drawdown of 1.3 million barrels.

EURUSD has been trading sideways since mid-June and is fresh off a test of key support at 1.1355. Persistent uncertainty surrounding the Middle East and the future of energy prices has kept central banks on both sides of the Atlantic on hawkish alert. Nevertheless, in recent weeks, expectations for US rate hikes have significantly diverged from those in Europe, pulling EUR/USD back below 1.1400. Source: xStation5

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