European natural gas prices hovered around €43.5 per MWh on the first day of July, close to a more than two-week high, as traders awaited developments in US–Iran talks. President Donald Trump’s envoys arrived in Doha on Tuesday, although Qatari mediators tempered expectations for a major breakthrough, noting that US officials were not set to meet directly with their Iranian counterparts. EU gas prices fell 5.6% in June and declined 14.4% over the second quarter, following an interim deal between the two sides that reversed most of the sharp gains seen earlier during a period of heightened tensions. However, downside momentum has been partially offset by tight physical market conditions in Europe. Storage facilities are currently around 48% full, notably lower than the 56% level at the same time last year and the five-year average of 61%. At the same time, an intense heatwave across Europe is boosting demand from electricity providers to meet increased cooling needs.

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