Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose to 2.95%, its highest level since October 2023, as escalating tensions in the Middle East intensified inflation concerns and reinforced expectations of further interest rate hikes. Oil prices extended their rally, briefly surpassing $100 per barrel after Iran increased attacks on oil and transportation infrastructure across the region. The International Energy Agency’s announcement of a 400-million-barrel release from strategic reserves offered little immediate relief to markets, as the additional supply may take weeks or even months to reach buyers. Against this backdrop, money markets are now fully pricing in a European Central Bank rate hike by July, with an 85% probability of a second increase by December. This represents a significant shift from late February, before the outbreak of the Iran war, when traders had assigned roughly a 40% chance that the ECB would cut rates before year-end.

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