Gold struggles below $4,150 as USD bulls look to FOMC Minutes for rate hike cues

• Gold struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from a two-month low amid fresh USD buying.
• Geopolitical uncertainties, along with elevated US bond yields, help revive demand for the Greenback.
• Traders now look to FOMC Minutes for more cues about the policy path and some directional impetus.

Gold (XAU/USD) retains its intraday bearish bias through the early European session on Wednesday, eyeing a two-month low around the $4,100 neighborhood touched the previous day. The US Dollar (USD) catches fresh bids after Tuesday’s corrective slide and is seen as a key factor weighing on the commodity as traders look to the FOMC meeting minutes for a fresh impetus.

The US macro data released last week pointed to moderating inflation and a slight cooling in the labor market, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates. However, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are pricing in around an 85% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in December. Hence, the upcoming FOMC Minutes will be looked upon for insights into further rate hikes and policy metrics, which, in turn, will play a key role in driving the USD and the non-yielding Gold.

Fed hike expectations shift toward December as medium-term outlook darkens

Strategists at BNY Markets stress that the recent repricing away from an October Fed move does not imply a material shift in the near-term policy path, noting that “that doesn’t mean that the December hike odds have shortened significantly, but we now expect the second hike of this cycle at the end of the year.” Looking further ahead, they caution that “into 2027, the outlook gets murkier, not least because the ongoing Middle East conflict has proven itself impossible to handicap – and with it, oil prices and the supply-side effect they have on the inflation outlook.”

Heading into the key event, persistent geopolitical uncertainties, along with a fresh leg up in US bond yields, help revive demand for the safe-haven USD. In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Saudi-backed Yemen’s internationally recognized government forces claimed control over strategic points along the Red Sea coast, including areas around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. On the other hand, the Iran-backed Houthi group retaliated by attacking key targets in Saudi Arabia, including an Aramco refinery in Riyadh.

Moreover, Iran has ramped up its pace of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz over the past week, helping crude oil prices to build on the overnight bounce from a one-month low. This, in turn, fuels energy-driven inflation fears and keeps US bond yields elevated near multi-year highs, which lends additional support to the USD and favors XAU/USD bears. Meanwhile, China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak for the 23rd consecutive month, though it did little to lend any support to the gold price amid a bearish fundamental backdrop.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Technical Analysis

The recent range-bound price action witnessed since the beginning of last week might be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a fall from the August monthly swing high. Moreover, the Gold price holds below the 100‑period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, validating the negative outlook.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory with a reading of 3.35, hinting at modest bullish momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.26 leans slightly lower, suggesting that rallies are vulnerable while the precious metal remains capped beneath these overhead levels.

Nevertheless, it would still be prudent to wait for a break and acceptance below $4,100, representing the lower boundary of the trading range and the 78.6% Fibo. retracement, before positioning for further losses to a more important structural floor at $3,938. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 61.8% retracement at $4,228, followed by the 100‑period SMA at $4,248 and the 50% retracement at $4,317. A sustained break above these clustered barriers would be needed to ease the current bearish tone.

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