Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 2.22% on Monday, hitting a three-week high as oil topped $100 a barrel on fears that a protracted war in the Middle East could lead to longer-term disruption of global energy supplies, weighing on oil-dependent economies. The US-Israeli war with Iran entered its second week with no resolution in sight, while major oil producers in the Middle East have been curbing production as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been halted. Japan relies on the Middle East for around 95% of its oil supplies with about 70% coming via the Strait of Hormuz, making the country particularly vulnerable to oil shocks. The government is considering tapping part of its national oil reserves as the Iran crisis continues. These developments cloud the outlook for Bank of Japan policy as the central bank navigates growth concerns alongside inflation risks driven by surging oil prices.

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