Standard Chartered’s Bader Al Sarraf and Nicholas Chia note that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept the OCR at 2.25% in a split 3-3 decision, with the governor’s casting vote preventing a hike. The RBNZ now signals tightening this year as inflation forecasts rise, and Standard Chartered expects three 25bps hikes, lifting the OCR to 3.00% by end-2026. NZD reaction has been modest so far.

RBNZ pivot underpins NZD outlook

“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept the official cash rate (OCR) unchanged at 2.25%, but this was not a neutral hold.”

“More importantly, all members agreed that OCR increases are likely to be required this year.”

“This marks a clear pivot away from the post-easing-cycle pause and towards a renewed tightening bias, in our view.”

“We revise our OCR forecasts and now expect three consecutive 25bps hikes, taking the OCR to 3.00% by end-2026 (2.25% prior); we had previously expected the RBNZ to stay on hold through the year.”

“We believe further upside will likely require either stronger conviction around the hiking cycle, firmer domestic data, or a broader improvement in global risk sentiment.”

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