Oil Nears $100 per Barrel, USD/JPY Tumbles Again.

• Asian equities are gaining, supported by the semiconductor sector. The broad MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up 0.3%, South Korea’s Kospi is rising by nearly 2.54%, and SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics are among the strongest performers. Nasdaq 100 futures are up around 0.2%.
• Brent crude futures (OIL) are gaining nearly 1%, trading above $98 per barrel. The market is awaiting details of an agreement between Iran and Oman concerning shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while strong crude purchases by China are providing additional support to prices.
• The U.S. dollar remains under moderate pressure, with the dollar index down around 0.1% and the 10-year Treasury yield falling by 1 basis point to 4.77%. The weaker dollar is supporting gold, which is up 0.5% at around $4,440 per ounce, while silver is gaining 0.8%.
• Bitcoin is falling for a second consecutive session. After retreating from around $80,000, the cryptocurrency is testing the $78,500 level. In agricultural commodities, wheat futures (WHEAT) are attracting attention with a 4% rebound following steep declines over the previous three sessions, during which the price fell by around 10%, from approximately $7.90 to $7.30 per bushel.
• Copper has reached a record high for a second consecutive session, climbing to $14,617 per tonne. Prices are being supported by concerns over tighter near-term supply and the possibility of U.S. tariffs on refined copper.
• The yen continues to strengthen, pushing USDJPY to its lowest level since February as markets increase bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike at its September 18 meeting. USDJPY briefly fell below 153, with the Japanese currency gaining around 1% after rising 1.2% on Monday.
• The yen’s rally, initially supported by actions and communication from the Japanese and U.S. authorities, is increasingly being backed by fundamentals. Stronger-than-previously-estimated Japanese GDP growth and the fastest wage growth in nearly three decades are strengthening the case for further monetary policy normalization.
• Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated the authorities’ readiness to respond to excessive currency-market volatility and pledged further action to maintain orderly market conditions.
• Today’s macroeconomic calendar is relatively light in both Europe and the U.S. The U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index will be released at 11 AM GMT. Market attention this week is focused primarily on Friday’s U.S. CPI report.
• Later in the week, investors will also analyze Thursday’s earnings from Oracle and Adobe for further indications about the strength of AI infrastructure spending and the impact of the investment boom on the software sector.

USDJPY and OIL charts, D1 interval

The pair recently plunged below its 200-day EMA (red line), moving into a downtrend. Following yesterday’s decline, we are seeing another downward impulse of a similar magnitude today. However, the candle’s long lower wick suggests that USDJPY may have reacted to support in the 152–153 area, where price action from January points to a potential double bottom.

Source: xStation5 Oil has posted a strong rally and today reached levels not seen since late May and early June, rising by around 40% from its local lows near $70 per barrel.

Source: xStation5

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