Sugar futures in the US rose to near 15.4 US cents, up from two-week lows of 15.2 hit on April 1st, largely driven by surging oil prices amid renewed concerns over the Middle East conflict. Higher oil prices encourage producers to allocate more sugarcane to ethanol, which reduces the global sugar supply. Hedgepoint Global Markets pointed out that the global sugar market remains largely unchanged in its fundamentals, with price dynamics being primarily influenced by external factors and technical movements. Market participants remain focused on the evolution of supply, especially in Brazil, where favorable weather conditions and stable estimates indicate prospects for greater availability. Reflecting this, Czarnickov raised its global production estimate for the 2025/26 season by 100,000 tons to 184.5 million metric tons, the second-highest on record, even after revising down India’s output.

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