U.S. indices rise during the US – Iran peace ceasefire talks

Nasdaq 100 futures (US100) are up more than 1% today, trading at their highest level since March 26, around 24,380 points. The benchmark is gaining after media reports indicated that Iran is engaged in negotiations over a potential 45-day ceasefire in the Middle East.

• According to Reuters sources, Iran has rejected a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a ceasefire and has refused to comply with any imposed deadlines or negotiate under pressure. At the same time, sentiment on Wall Street appears to be gradually stabilizing, largely driven by expectations of a constructive outcome from Washington–Tehran negotiations, potentially leading to the reopening of tanker traffic.
• Donald Trump set a deadline of 2:00 AM CET for either de-escalation or significant strikes on Iranian infrastructure. So far, both sides appear to maintain relatively hardline negotiating positions. Iran has also threatened retaliatory attacks on infrastructure across the Middle East, including assets linked to the United States.
• Meanwhile, Citrini released a report suggesting that the datasets used in macro and oil market analysis may overlook a substantial portion of actual tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the report, many vessels operate with transponders switched off or deliberately misreport their data.
• Brent crude has declined from around $112 per barrel at the start of Monday’s session to below $108 in the late morning, indicating a partial unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium.

What to expect from the ISM data?

Beyond geopolitics, investor attention is shifting toward US ISM Services data, scheduled for release at 3 PM GMT. February’s ISM reading was the highest since 2022, suggesting that exceeding the previous print may be challenging given the Middle East conflict and rising energy costs.

• 16:00 CET – US ISM Services (March): expected 54.9 vs. 56.1 previously
• Prices Index: expected 67 vs. 63 previously
• New Orders: expected 56.8 vs. 58.6 previously
• Employment: expected 51.0 vs. 51.6 previously

A notable increase in the prices sub-index is expected. The greater the divergence between prices and components such as new orders or employment, the more credible the risk of a stagflationary environment becomes. Elevated fuel prices reduce disposable income, a dynamic historically associated with corrections or bear markets.

Importantly, the prices sub-index does not directly feed into the composite ISM figure, which may increase the likelihood of a larger month-on-month correction in the headline index. On the other hand, a sharp decline appears less likely given stronger-than-expected regional data from the Dallas Fed, Philly Fed, Empire State, Richmond Fed, and Kansas City Fed.

US100 (D1 timeframe)

Source: xStation5

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