UK 10-year gilt yields climbed further above 4.95%, nearing levels not seen since 2008, as traders increased their bets on Bank of England rate hikes amid escalating crude prices, fueled by stalled US-Iran negotiations, and mounting inflation concerns. Market optimism about a diplomatic resolution to the conflict has waned following the collapse of a two-week ceasefire and the failure to resume talks. Adding to the pressure, UK retail sales grew by 0.7% month-on-month in March, outperforming the anticipated 0.2% increase. The uptick was primarily driven by motorists stocking up on petrol as prices surged due to the ongoing conflict. Excluding petrol, sales rose by 0.2%. The stronger-than-expected data has reinforced expectations of near-term interest rate hikes, with investors now fully pricing in two quarter-point increases in 2026 and assigning a 30% chance of a third hike by year-end.

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