The UK 10-year gilt yield dipped to 4.39% before edging back above 4.40%, staying close to its lowest level since December 2024. Investors weighed Finance Minister Rachel Reeves’ pre-budget remarks while awaiting the Bank of England’s policy announcement on Thursday. In a rare speech just three weeks before the November budget, Reeves cautioned that the government faces “hard choices” to sustain public spending and cut national debt, hinting at potential broad-based tax increases. She also reaffirmed her commitment to fiscal discipline, even as elevated interest rates and years of underinvestment continue to pressure public finances. Meanwhile, expectations for monetary easing have shifted notably. While markets previously anticipated no rate change until spring, they now see roughly even odds of a rate cut this week amid signs of moderating inflation and sluggish growth.

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