The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note held around 4.08% on Wednesday, pausing a recent rise as investors weighed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. Markets currently price roughly an 89% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut next week, with about 90 basis points of total easing priced in for 2026. Expectations that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett could be nominated as the next Fed chair added to the dovish sentiment, as Hassett is known for supporting faster rate reductions in line with President Donald Trump’s stance. Attention now turns to the ADP employment report for November for insight into labor market conditions. Earlier in the week, Treasury yields jumped as Japanese and European bond yields climbed on hawkish signals from foreign central banks.

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