The yield on the 10-year Treasury held near 4.14% on Thursday after climbing in the prior session, as investors awaited crucial labor and inflation data to shape the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Weekly jobless claims due later today come amid mounting worries over labor market weakness and rising layoffs, while Friday’s PCE price index will provide further insight into the impact of tariffs on prices. Recent Fed commentary has muddied expectations for additional rate cuts, with markets no longer fully pricing in a reduction next month. Futures currently imply 43 basis points of easing across the Fed’s two remaining meetings this year. Uncertainty over a potential government shutdown also added to the cautious mood.

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