Wheat futures in the US were above $5.35 per bushel, not far from the two-month high of $5.4 on January 29th on lingering risks to supply. Renewed bouts of severe cold across the US Plains and parts of southern Russia revived concerns over winterkill for already stressed crops, tightening supply expectations after recent dryness limited protective snow cover in key regions. In the Black Sea, weather disruptions and lingering logistical frictions continued to constrain export flows, while uncertainty around Russia’s upcoming export quota reinforced expectations that global availability could tighten later in the marketing year. In turn, export aggregates from the US remained high as consumers were forced to diversify away from Black Sea gains due to military risk on strikes between Russia and Ukraine.

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