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UOB strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note that AUD/USD benefited from the weaker US Dollar and reclaimed the 0.70 handle, with momentum strengthening faster than expected. Intraday gains may be capped within a tight range, but the 1–3 week outlook now points to further upside toward 0.7035, provided the pair holds above a nearby strong support zone.
Australian Dollar momentum improves above 0.70
“24-HOUR VIEW: After AUD rose to a high of 0.6993 two days ago, we highlighted the following yesterday: “Upward momentum is increasing, albeit not significantly. Today, there is scope for AUD to test 0.7000. A clear break above this level is unlikely. The major resistance at 0.7015 is also unlikely to come into view.” We did not expect upward momentum to strengthen so quickly as AUD soared to a high of 0.7017, closing 0.34% higher at 0.7003. While further AUD strength is not ruled out, negative divergence is forming on momentum indicators, and any advance is likely to stay within a range of 0.6985/0.7020.”
“1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (19 Oct, spot at 0.6965), we highlighted that AUD “appears to have moved into a range-trading phase,” and “for the time being, we expect it to trade between 0.6915 and 0.7015.” Yesterday, AUD broke above 0.7015 as it rose to a high of 0.7017. Upward momentum is starting to build, and AUD could rise toward 0.7035 as long as it holds above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.6965.”
