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The Bank of Russia cut its policy rate by 25bps to 14.25% in its June 2026 decision, contrasting with the median market consensus of a 50bps cut to 14%. The central bank noted that pro-inflationary risks prevailed in the medium term when citing the warrant for restrictive monetary policy. Such pro-inflationary risks are supported by the external backdrop of higher energy prices due to the war in the Middle East, higher energy prices domestically as refineries are targeted by Ukraine, and higher inflation expectations as wage growth outpaces productivity growth. On top of that, the CBR stated that fiscal policy is more accommodative than previously expected, adding to the requirement that monetary conditions must remain restrictive to prevent further inflation. The inflation rate in Russia eased to 5.3% in May, remaining above the CBR target of 4%.
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