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September arabica coffee (KCU26) on Wednesday closed down -13.60 (-4.01%), and September ICE robusta coffee (RMU26) closed down -104 (-2.68%).
Coffee prices settled sharply lower on Wednesday as weakness in the Brazilian real induced long liquidation in coffee futures. The real (^USDBRL) dropped to a 2.5-week low against the dollar on Wednesday, which encourages export sales from Brazil’s coffee producers.
On Tuesday, coffee prices rallied to 2-week highs amid concern that heavy rain in Brazil will further disrupt the country’s coffee harvest and tighten global supplies. On Monday, Somar Meteorologia reported that 32.4 mm of rain, or 2700% of the historical average, fell in the week ended July 26 in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s biggest coffee-growing region.
The slow pace of Brazil’s coffee harvest is supportive of coffee prices. The harvest among members of Cooxupe co-op was 58.3% complete as of July 24, behind the year-earlier pace of 67%. On July 17, Safras & Mercado reported that Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee harvest was 64% complete as of July 15, behind last year’s comparable level of 77% and the five-year average of 70%.
Rising inventories are weighing on robusta coffee as ICE robusta inventories climbed to a 4.25-month high of 4,254 lots last Wednesday, although inventories were mildly below that level at 4,136 lots today. By contrast, a bullish factor for arabica coffee prices was that ICE arabica coffee inventories fell to a 2.5-year low of 274,168 bags on Wednesday.
Last Friday, coffee prices tumbled to 3-week lows due to the USDA’s forecast last Wednesday that global coffee output in the 2026-27 season will rise by +6.0% (10.8 million bags) to a record 189.7 million bags, mainly due to improved growing conditions in Brazil. The USDA expects global arabica production to rise +12% y/y, although robusta production is expected to fall by -0.7% y/y. World ending stocks are expected to rise +1.9 million bags to 26.3 million bags. On June 3, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecast a record 2026/27 Brazil coffee crop of 71.9 million bags, up +14% y/y.
Concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could hurt Brazil’s coffee crop next year are bullish for prices. Coffee trader Commercial said the El Niño weather pattern may delay rains in Brazil this September and October, when tree flowering normally occurs, hurting Brazil’s 2026/27 coffee crop. On July 8, the US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño weather pattern that emerged across the equatorial Pacific last month will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. This sets the stage for months of possible floods, droughts, and temperature fluctuations later this year that could hinder coffee production in Asia and South America.
Soaring coffee exports from Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, are bearish for robusta prices. On July 3, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that Vietnam’s 2026 coffee exports (Jan-Jun) rose by +7.3% y/y to 1.05 MMT. Vietnam’s 2025 coffee exports jumped by +17.5% y/y to 1.58 MMT. Also, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb +6% y/y to a 4-year high of 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags).
