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Bonds

Bund Yields Hit 17-Year High as ECB Hike Bets Build

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield rose to 3.55%, its highest level since June 2009, as investors increased bets on further European Central Bank rate hikes amid renewed inflation concerns and ahead of today’s US Federal Reserve decision. Markets are now pricing the ECB deposit rate at around 2.9% by December, up from the current 2.5%. Further out, the rate is seen reaching 3.4% by November 2027, fully pricing a third hike and implying roughly a 50% probability of a fourth move. The ECB raised rates last week for the second time this year in an effort to contain an energy-driven rise in inflation, while warning that price pressures could prove persistent. The comments have strengthened expectations for further tightening. Meanwhile, US policymakers are widely expected to raise rates by 25 basis points later today, the first hike in three years, with markets also looking for signals on the prospect of further tightening.

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