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Rabobank’s RaboResearch Cross-asset Macro Strategist Molly Schwartz, expects the Bank of Canada to maintain the policy rate at 2.25% during the January 28 decision. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg unanimously support this view, as current economic conditions show cooling inflation and no new GDP prints. The Q4 business outlook survey indicates improving sentiment, but hiring is slowing and layoffs may follow. Despite these challenges, no rate cuts are anticipated in 2026 due to ongoing trade tensions with the US.
Bank of Canada policy rate outlook
“We expect the Bank of Canada to maintain the policy rate at 2.25% at the January 28 decision. A hold is the unanimous view amongst Bloomberg surveyed analysts, and is suggested by present OIS curve pricing.”
“Economic conditions are largely unchanged from the last decision, as inflation pressures continue to cool, and there are no new GDP prints to analyze.”
“Despite cooling inflation and weakening economic activity, we see no cuts in 2026 as the economic forces strangling the economy can almost entirely be traced back to the ongoing trade war with the US, that monetary policy cannot offset on its own.”
