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CadMarketsTechnical Analysis

Canadian CPI slightly higher than expected – USD/CAD reacts

Canadian CPI YoY: 3% (Forecast 2.9%, Previous 2.8%). Canada’s headline inflation accelerated to 3% in July, slightly above expectations, mainly because higher Middle East tensions pushed gasoline prices sharply higher. USDCAD weakens after the data.

  • Gasoline prices rose 25.7% year over year, up from 20.5% in June, while CPI excluding gasoline stayed much softer at 2.2%, suggesting energy costs have not yet spread broadly across the economy.
  • Core inflation remained subdued, with the Bank of Canada’s preferred measures averaging about 1.95%, still below the 2% target.
  • Other inflation pressures came from travel tours and airfares, which rose strongly amid World Cup demand and higher jet fuel costs.
  • Grocery inflation eased to 3.1% from 3.9%, while shelter inflation slowed to 1.3%, its weakest pace since May 2020.
  • The inflation report comes alongside firmer economic data, including a 6.4% unemployment rate, strong job creation and preliminary GDP growth of 3.4% annualized in Q2, which may keep the Bank of Canada cautious despite soft core inflation.

Source: XTB Research, Statiscis Canada, Macrobond

Source: xStation5

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