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- USD/CAD remains on the defensive for the second straight day amid a combination of factors.
- Rebounding oil prices underpin the Loonie and weigh on the pair amid subdued USD demand.
- The downside seems limited amid US-Iran tensions and ahead of the key FOMC rate decision.
The USD/CAD pair is seen consolidating around the 1.4100 mark during the Asian session as traders keenly await the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting, due later this Wednesday. Investors will look for fresh cues about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future policy path, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the currency pair.
In the meantime, the USD remains on the defensive below a one-month top, touched on Tuesday, as bulls turn cautious heading into the key central bank event risk. Furthermore, a solid recovery in crude oil prices from an over two-week low underpins the commodity-linked Loonie and turns out to be another factor acting as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. However, persistent geopolitical uncertainties should support the safe-haven Greenback and limit the downside for the currency pair.
In fact, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched multiple ballistic missiles at US forces in the Middle East on Tuesday. Separately, Central Command said the US military and Saudi Arabian forces conducted joint strikes against Iran-aligned terrorists in Iraq. Moreover, President Donald Trump issued a fresh warning that the US will return to strong military action, targeting key Iranian infrastructure, if diplomatic efforts do not bring a rapid resolution to the crisis in the Middle East.
This marks a fresh escalation of tensions in the Middle East and triggers a fresh leg up in crude oil prices, reviving inflation fears and bolstering bets for at least one interest rate hike by the Fed in 2026. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) dovish bias, which should cap the Canadian Dollar (CAD). Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent USD/CAD recovery from a one-month low has run out of steam.
