The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at around 1.1481 USD per euro. The market is being shaped by multiple factors from both Europe and the US. Despite positive signals from the eurozone economy, the dominant strength of the dollar and key macroeconomic data from the US are setting the tone for trading. Additionally, the ongoing US government shutdown adds further uncertainty to the markets.
What is driving EUR/USD today?
In a context of global risk aversion, the dollar remains a safe haven.
The Eurozone PMI rose to 52.5 in October from 51.2 in September. A strong services sector and record-high new orders improve the outlook for the euro, although industrial production remains stable and some countries, like France, still face economic challenges.
The latest ADP data showed solid growth in US private sector employment, which strengthened the dollar. The market is now awaiting further reports, such as the ISM survey and official employment data, which could confirm the continuation of the positive trend in the labor market.
The current US government shutdown has now lasted over 34 days, making it the second-longest in the country’s history. The lack of agreement between Democrats and Republicans keeps the administration paralyzed, leading to the suspension of public services, mass furloughs of federal employees, and delays in releasing key economic data. Prospects for ending the shutdown remain uncertain, and a possible extension through the end of November increases market uncertainty.
Since yesterday, the market has seen a correction in tech stocks, prompting investors to withdraw capital from riskier assets. As a result, funds are flowing into safe-haven investments such as the dollar, further supporting the US currency and affecting EUR/USD.
The Fed signals a possible end to its cycle of interest rate cuts, which supports the dollar. The European Central Bank keeps interest rates relatively stable, giving the euro no clear advantage over the US currency.
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